Nemetschek: HCSS and AI shift the debate to execution and multiples

研报英文原文证据摘录

Nemetschek: HCSS and AI shift the debate to execution and multiples

19 June 2026

Price Target Downgrade

Richard Nguyen

+33 1 42 13 54 22

European Technology/Software richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com

Nemetschek

Rating

Market-Perform

Price Target

NEM.GR 68.00 EUR (104.00 OLD)

Nemetschek: HCSS and AI shift the debate to execution and

multiples

Valuation reset - not fundamentals - drives our more cautious stance on Nemetschek. We cut

Close Date 17 Jun 2026

our price target to €68 (from €104) and reiterate our Market-Perform rating, reflecting a shift

NEM.GR Close Price (EUR) 54.40

from long-duration compounding toward execution and valuation discipline. While we remain

Price Target (EUR) 68.00

constructive on structural growth and AI optionality, we also see incremental risk from the HCSS

Upside/(Downside) 25%

acquisition and rising uncertainty around premium software multiples. Our key differentiator

52-Week Range 138.50/53.40

is a revised valuation approach (70% EV/EBITDA, 30% DCF) that better reflects near-term

EDME 1,582.03

execution risk and investor skepticism.

FYE Dec

A blended valuation better anchors expectations. We move away from a pure DCF, as long- Div Yield 1.3%

term intrinsic value is unlikely to be fully priced during a transition phase. In our view, market Market Cap (EUR) (M) 6,208

multiples provide a more realistic near-term anchor as focus shifts to delivery and integration. EV (EUR) (M) 6,306

Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

HCSS strengthens the story but raises the hurdle. The deal expands scale, US exposure, Absolute (%) (42.1) (10.5) (43.1) (55.5)

and lifecycle positioning, but introduces higher leverage, a premium entry multiple, and EDME (%) 7.6 4.5 8.4 19.2

structural complexity. This shifts the debate toward execution and synergy delivery.