CEEMEA Macro & Strategy Weekly

研报英文原文证据摘录

CEEMEA Macro & Strategy Weekly

19 June 2026

markets, we provide an update on our external fair value models for fixed

income and sovereign credit markets, with an aim to identify countries with

the greatest near-term outperformance potential.

Local Markets Strategy

n The Flow Wonder of Budapest Since the general election in mid-April,

Hungary assets have emerged as a standout in EM. Remarkably, despite a

temporary VaR shock in early March, Hungarian local markets (FI & FX),

alongside Colombia, are the best-performing EM fixed income markets

YTD, returning an impressive 17%. While not a record, Hungary is on track

for one of its top three best years for bonds over the past 12 years.

n Trade of the Week: stay received CZK rates vs EUR In late May, we

recommended 2Y2Y CZK receivers vs EUR as one of our highest conviction

trade recommendations into the (early) summer. Among others, we

justified this with a too excessive hiking cycle & risk-neutral rate pricing for

the CNB compared to the ECB. In light of the better external risk perception,

we discuss in this publication why we have now even more comfort in this

trade and revise our target & stop.

Sovereign Credit Strategy

n EM Sovereign Credit Datapack (June 2026) Our EM Sovereign Credit

Datapack is a collection of data and analysis on debt, fiscal,

macroeconomic and financial market metrics. We attempt to standardize

data concepts and update with the latest figures. All the data are presented

in a dashboard-style display to allow for easy comparison across EM

countries.

Thematic Reports

n Postcards from Central Asia

n Asia takes over: A very important change in the EM inflation regime

n Türkiye: flows & reserve tracker: reserves rebound, inflows return in

June

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