The Daily Inspector

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Daily Inspector

e the impact of Jansen Phase 2 which is beyond the 5 +1-212-713 4312

year forecast with the 2031 startup. Nicole Grueneberg

Practically we’d assume Jansen Phase 2 tons come in over 2031-2033 and more Associate Analyst

nicole.grueneberg@ubs.com

back weighted there with potential delays, but with it adding another ~4mmts

+1-212-713-2469

capacity overall, that's equivalent to another ~2 years of demand growth there in

the early 2030’s and we view this as extending the period over which the market

will need to absorb ample supply growth.

The shorter term potash S/D has been more balanced. We’ve seen pricing come up

since the start of the Middle East disruption, but roughly half of this is just higher

freight costs that we don't expect will benefit realized prices. That said, the market

and pricing is still doing better than we had expected earlier in the year, where we

thought we’d be seeing seasonal pricing declines by now in mid-June (pricing has

barely moved lower yet - link). So there's a risk we could be wrong here on the

short term pricing outlook depending how 3Q/2H26 goes, but in the medium

term, we continue to see the weight of supply as outpacing demand looking out

over the next couple of years.

Our base view has been more bearish on the potash outlook than cons. and the

main point of difference in our Sell rating on NTR. While we view this as a negative

for MOS/NTR's potash earnings the next few years, this is already incorporated in

our base case est's. Investors/market have been more bullish here, so we see

today's update as a modest negative, but we'd expect the shorter term

fundamentals to outweigh the longer dated impact from Jansen Phase 2 that will

keep the negative reaction in the shares as relatively modest.

Announced H.B.