Latin American Economic Perspectives Brazil Copom: The Cuts Must Go On

研报英文原文证据摘录

Latin American Economic Perspectives Brazil Copom: The Cuts Must Go On

Global Research

17 June 2026ab

Latin American Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasBrazil Copom: The Cuts Must Go On

Alexandre de Azara

Economist

Copom delivers a third consecutive 25bp cut alexandre.azara@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6570

In a unanimous decision, the Committee reduced the Selic rate by 25bp, taking it to

14.25% p.a. The decision was widely expected, with 22 of 25 economists surveyed Fabio Ramos

Economistby Bloomberg anticipating the move. This marks the third consecutive rate cut and

fabio.ramos@ubs.com

confirms the Copom's preference for a gradual easing cycle. +55-11-2767 6525

The Committee leaves the door open to additional easing Roque Montero

Strategist

The key question ahead of the meeting was whether the Copom would signal the roque.montero@ubs.com

end of the easing cycle. While the statement stopped short of providing explicit +1-203-719 2112

forward guidance, the Committee's updated inflation projections suggest further

Rodrigo Martins

cuts remain likely. Under several reasonable market trajectories, inflation is Economist

projected to finish 2027 below target. In our reading, this remains consistent with rodrigo.martins@ubs.com

at least one or two additional rate cuts. With two meetings remaining before the +55-11-2767 6338

presidential election, we continue to expect 25bp cuts in both August and

September. The repeated emphasis on "serenity and cautiousness" also supports the

case for maintaining the current pace of easing rather than accelerating it.

Fiscal credibility will determine the post-election easing path

While we continue to expect two additional cuts before the election, the policy

path thereafter will depend largely on fiscal developments. In our framework, there