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Quantitative Monographs: AI in Finance Forum, Singapore 2026
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Quantitative Monographs: AI in Finance Forum, Singapore 2026
When machines disagree: evidence from large language
models
Presenter: Si Cheng, Syracuse University
Discussant: Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, Nanyang Technological
University
Abstract:
Using six leading large language models to extract sentiment from news headlines and
predict stock returns, we document substantial variation across model providers and
investment horizons. This model disagreement reflects systematic differences in causal
reasoning rather than noise. Stocks with higher cross-provider and cross-horizon
dispersions earn lower future returns, especially among firms with more opaque
information environments and greater operating uncertainty. Model disagreement
amplifies post-earnings-announcement drift for small firms, while delaying the
immediate price reaction to earnings announcements for large firms. Model
disagreement also increases both overall and retail trading volume. Evidence from
exogenous ChatGPT outages reinforces our conclusions. Overall, our findings highlight
the growing role of AI in shaping investor beliefs, stock price dynamics, and price
informativeness.
Generative AI and knowledge-informed deep learning for
asset pricing and investment management
Lin William Cong, NTU President’s Chair Professor in Finance,
Computing and Data Science; Associate Dean, Nanyang Business
School
Summary:
Professor William Cong presented a comprehensive review of three cutting edge
working papers on generative AI in asset pricing, including how to use generative
modeling for general portfolio management and Robo-Advising, how to use tree-based
interpretable AI models for asset pricing and heterogeneity analyses, and how to use
Structured-Knowledge-Informed-Neural-Networks (SKINNs) for option pricing and
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