Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto Tech Sector: Automobile sector strategy: Upgrading stance from bearish to neutral

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Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto Tech Sector: Automobile sector strategy: Upgrading stance from bearish to neutral

Global Research

18 June 2026ab

Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto-tech Equities

Sector Japan

AutomobilesAutomobile sector strategy: Upgrading stance

Kohei Takahashifrom bearish to neutral

Analyst

kohei.takahashi@ubs.com

+81-3-5208 6172

Upgrading sector stance from bearish to neutral Mao Eguchi

Since 27 February, Japanese auto OEM share prices have fallen around 20% (Figure 1), Associate Analyst

prompting us to upgrade our sector stance to neutral. However, rate hikes (e.g. the Fed’s mao.eguchi@ubs.com

stance?) and widening spreads (e.g. deterioration in US auto finance conditions?) are +81-3-5208 6242

emerging as new concerns. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz alone is unlikely to

restore share prices to levels seen before 27 March. We recommend with Buy ratings

Suzuki Motor and Isuzu Motors, the winners in Global South markets, and Toyota

Motor, which has completed its profit structure transformation. We view US exposure as

a short-term negative factor due to tariffs and intensifying competition and thus have

Sell ratings on Subaru and Nissan Motor. We also have a Sell rating on Archion due to its

unattractive valuation. We have revised our earnings forecasts, now assuming ¥160/$

(previously ¥155/$), and upgraded Isuzu Motors to Buy and downgraded Subaru to Sell

(Figure 3).

Middle East impact: Japanese OEMs already reflect in guidance

The Middle East impact and higher raw material costs reflected in FY3/27 guidance is

equivalent to 1.2-3.2% of sales (Figures 6-8). We factor in a cost increase equivalent to

2.0% of sales, or ¥100,000 per vehicle (Figures 9-10), as well as sluggish sales in the

Middle East and the ASEAN region.