INDIA FIRST TO MARKET

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INDIA FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

India First to Market 22 June 2026

Top Stories

Indian Electric Utilities & IPPs (Atul Tiwari)

Power Demand Firms Up In Summer Heat, Market Remains Well Supplied

India’s power demand picked up in May 2026, with monthly energy demand up 11% y/y to 165 BUs and peak demand up 17%

y/y to a record 270 GW, driven largely by summer heat. Growth eased in June, with 7-day peak demand growth slowing to

6.8% y/y as the seasonal surge moderated. Despite firmer demand, the market has remained well supplied, with energy and

peak deficits holding near zero through FY26. Capacity additions remain renewable-led, total installed capacity stands at 537

GW, the renewable share has climbed to 52% from 40% in early 2023, India now ranks third globally in renewable capacity, and

the BESS pipeline is set to scale up sharply to 39 GW/121 GWh by FY29 from 767 MW/2,524 MWh in FY26. Reflecting this

comfortable balance, short-term prices have softened to the Rs 4.4/kWh range from a peak of Rs 7.6/kWh in Apr-22, even as

traded volumes climbed to 23 BUs.

Indian Oil Marketing Companies (Sanjay Mookim)

OMC Margin Meter: petrol / diesel margins back above pre-conflict levels

Our estimates for OMC composite margins on petrol and diesel are now higher than pre-war levels. Losses on LPG are still

elevated, but should also start to track oil down soon. Earnings for 1QFY27 will likely be hurt by large inventory losses, but 2Q

profitability should be better. Two issues limit our excitement around this improvement in margins: 1) the OMC will have

acquired material debt during the last few months - affecting valuations, and 2) a major part of the restoration of profitability is

on account of the reduction in excise duties. It is possible that the govt.