Take-Two Interactive Soft (TTWO US): Buy: Showtime

研报英文原文证据摘录

Take-Two Interactive Soft (TTWO US): Buy: Showtime

Equities ● Software

19 June 2026

Bullish near-term forecast underpinned by favourable GTA6

launch environment

Revisiting our GTA6 sales drivers

We pencil in FY28/28/29e GTA6 unit sales of 40m/28m/20m respectively.

We note that our forecast unit sales are greater than the prior (GTA5 in 2013) franchise release

at the roughly same time period from launch (GTA5 released in Sep, GTA6 slated for Nov, but

the bulk of early sales happen in first 30 days), despite a smaller installed console base

(HSBCe 133m latest generation PS/Xbox units by 4Q26 vs 155m units at GTA5 release). Our

forecasts are also ahead of the implied GTA6 unit sales in management’s FY27 bookings guide.

GTA6/5 unit sales in respective TTWO Total PS and Xbox console base and

fiscal years at launch (m) implied GTA5 vs 6 attachment rates

40 200 35%

35 30%

25%

25 120 20%

15%15 80

10 10%

5 5%

0 0 0%

FY27/FY14 FY28/FY16 FY29/FY17 FY30/FY18 4Q13 4Q26

GTA6 (HSBCe) GTA5 GTA6 (implied from guidance) Installed console base (m) GTA atachment rate (%)

Source: Company disclosures, HSBCe Source Company disclosures, HSBCe

We think our bullish assumptions are justified given:

#1 Scale of built-in audience and pent-up demand: GTA6’s release looks set to benefit from

the immense scale of the pre-existing base of GTA franchise fans as over 230m copies of GTA5

have been sold worldwide (as of April 2026), c10x the unit sales of the prior edition, and from

the once-in-a-decade nature of the event given the long-wait period (over 13 years) since GTA5

was published in 2013.

This is reflected in the elevated levels of hype with over 80m views of the last GTA6 trailer on

the official YouTube channel in the first 24hrs alone, well ahead of any other large AAA game.