BMW (BMW GR): Hold: A reset to current reality

研报英文原文证据摘录

BMW (BMW GR): Hold: A reset to current reality

17 June 2026

Equities

AutomobilesBMW (BMW GR)

Hold: A reset to current reality Germany

◆ Setting FY26 expectations above peers backfires; cuts reflect

MAINTAIN HOLD

rising headwinds and competitive forces in a transition year

TARGET PRICE (EUR) PREVIOUS TARGET (EUR)◆ Forthcoming restructuring and strong reception to new product

suggests longer-term outlook should see higher profitability 71.00 79.00

◆ Maintain Hold rating, cut TP to EUR71.00 from EUR79.00 SHARE PRICE (EUR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

following 20-38% cut to 2026e/27e group operating profit 63.60 +11.6%

(as of 17 Jun 2026, 13:35 CET)

Known headwinds become earnings reality. Arguably a weak China weak and rising MARKET DATA

commodity prices/logistics costs were known, but until yesterday BMW had suggested it Market cap (EURm) 35688.2 Free float 53%

could weather the storm (see BMW: Marching to a different beat, 13 March 2026). Market cap (USDm) 41428.6 BBG BMW GR 3m ADTV (USDm) 126.6 RIC BMWG.DE

Yesterday, however, BMW revealed they see higher competitive pressure in APAC,

which we assume is a function of rising China exports at a time when consumers are FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (EUR)

Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

embracing EVs due to the Iran war. We cut our 2026 and 2027 group EBIT by 38% HSBC EPS 11.89 6.61 9.30 12.25

and 20% respectively. The latter reflects a higher commodity price headwind, but HSBC EPS (prev) 11.89 9.82 10.91 12.66

Change (%) 0.0 -32.6 -14.8 -3.2

also some assumed savings from restructuring. Given the scale of the cut, we’d like Consensus EPS 10.77 9.22 11.12 12.74

to think more warnings are unlikely, but competition in China remains a concern. PE (x) 5.3 9.6 6.8 5.2

Dividend yield (%) 6.9 4.1 6.0 7.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 8.2 6.8 5.9