THG PLC Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

THG PLC Model Update

Lara Simpson AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-3637 19 June 2026 C A Z E N O V E

lara.simpson@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

In our view, the investment case is increasingly coming together:

post the Ingenuity demerger, management is focused on two

scaled, digital-first consumer franchises (Beauty and Nutrition)

with clear self-help levers to drive a more consistent growth,

margin and cash profile. Strategically, we favour 1) THG

Beauty’s pivot to higher-value customers and home-market

prioritization, complemented by stronger go-to-market

execution in social commerce and AI-enabled customer

acquisition/discovery, and 2) THG Nutrition’s omni-channel

YTD 1m 3m 12m expansion (offline + licensing) and category diversification,

Abs -30.6% -3.5% 8.8% 20.8% supporting a pathway back toward structurally higher margins

Rel -34.8% -4.0% 5.3% 4.0%

over time. Against this, however, we recognize the stock still

Company Data carries execution risk (sustaining momentum, delivering the

Shares O/S (mn) 1,452 margin reset, and converting progress into durable free cash

52-week range (p) 53-26 flow), which we see as broadly balanced by upside on

Market cap ($ mn) 608.26

Exchange rate 75.72 operational delivery and continued balance sheet improvement

Free float (%) 59.2% - remain Neutral.

3M ADV (mn) 4.36

3M ADV ($ mn) 1.9 Valuation

Volatility (90 Day) 50 We apply a WACC of 9.5% and terminal growth of 2.0% for

Index FTSE All-Share

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 2|2|0 THG resulting in a Dec-2027 DCF-based target price of 48p.

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

Performance Drivers£ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 1,717 1,795 1,883 1,973

Adj. EBITDA 77 100 119 134

Adj. EBIT (14) 19 34 46

Adj.