2H‘26 Top Macro Trade Recommendations

研报英文原文证据摘录

2H‘26 Top Macro Trade Recommendations

lical resilience. Lower gold prices and higher oil prices have slowed but not stopped the

growth outlook. FX is likely to be more tightly contained going forward with inflation

terms of trade led recovery, in our view. While ZAR current ST FV is 16.90, the positive global overlay is

accelerating to 10.7%yoy in April from 9.9%yoy in March. Capacity to defend the

likely to be more important over the course of H2 2026, in our view, and our forecasts imply renewed

currency still remains solid with ample FX reserves.

ToT gains.OW in GBI-EM.

ILS to remain supported by continued productivity improvements, despite a more dovish BoI

EM EMEA tiltwinner(4Q26:industries2.70, 2Q27:(software,2.70).defenseGiven thetech,favorablesemi, pharma),positioningwe expectof the domesticpositive trendscorporatein growthsector andto AI

productivity to drive further appreciation of ILS. More inelastic demand of Israel’s high value services

provides current account resilience and acceleration in FDI and inbound M&A is likely to persist. We

expect BoI easing to slow but not stop ILS appreciation. 17-Aug-26 EUR/ILS put spread (3.35, 3.22).

More bullish CZK, turn OW with signs of better growth and higher carry (4Q26: 19.75, 2Q27:

19.50). We upgrade CZK in the GBI-EM Model Portfolio given prospects for firmer growth and higher

carry ahead. Strong credit growth and capital expenditure amid core inflation near the upper end of the

target bank tie into a hawkish CNB. Delivery of rate hikes would be supportive for CZK. CZK is around

2% cheap to our fair value model estimate of 23.75 against the EUR, considering rate differentials,

EURUSD and gas prices. OW in GBI-EM.

We retain tactical longs in TRY even as we have taken our OW off (4Q26: 51.40, 2Q27: 53.70).