Emerging Markets FX

研报英文原文证据摘录

Emerging Markets FX

Anezka Christovova AC (44-20) 7742-2630 Michael J Loh (65) 6882-1783 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A Nanezka.christovova@jpmorgan.com michael.loh@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch 19 June 2026

Tania Escobedo Jacob (1-212) 622-4128 Tiffany Wang (852) 2800-1726

tania.escobedojacob@jpmorgan.com tiffany.r.wang@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Emerging Markets FX the overall EM growth FRI index keeping pace with the US

growth FRI index. This has not been the case for the DM-ex

• EM FX: We returned to an OW stance in EM FX with US FRI index, however, which has started to underperform.

a preference for high yielders (see here). OWs in

LatAwith stronger growth/inflation mix. Figure 1: EM hiking cycles in the context of positive growth revisions

have been rare post-GFC

• EMEA EM: We enter 2H26 OW EMEA EM FX (from

MW): OW HUF, OW CZK and OW ZAR, partially 10 107

EM policy forecast history

hedging EURUSD risk with UW RSD. Global and EM growth FRI (RHS)

regional capex cycle uplift underpin our conviction to 8 EM FX index (RHS) 102

shift up a gear.

• LatAm: LatAm FX remains supported by carry and 6 97

commodity prices, but politics remain a source of idio-

syncratic risk. We stay overall OW. We are OW MXN, 4 92

recently moved to MW BRL (from OW) and to OW

CLP (from MW). We are MW in PEN and COP 2 87

• EM Asia: We remain UW Asia FX (via UW THB FX)

as the region remains vulnerable to tighter financial 0 82

conditions. Easing energy prices are best expressed in Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16 Jan-20 Jan-24

SGDTWD shorts amid a carry-friendly environment,

Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg Finance L.P.