LatAm Sustainable Investing: Brazil’s Social Programs: Benefits, Burdens and Bills

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LatAm Sustainable Investing: Brazil’s Social Programs: Benefits, Burdens and Bills

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

19 June 2026

LatAm Sustainable Investing

Brazil’s Social Programs: Benefits, Burdens and Bills

Social programs reach roughly 18% of Brazil’s population (about 34 million Latin America and Brazil Equity

people), supported by more than US$50 billion per year in federal spending. In Strategy

2023, combined federal and subnational social protection outlays exceeded 16.5% Cinthya M Mizuguchi AC

of GDP—well above most Latin American peers and broadly comparable to levels (55-11) 4950-6560

seen in several European countries. The key question, however, is the trade-off cinthya.mizuguchi@jpmorgan.com

between social benefit and fiscal burden. Brazilian official agencies argue that, Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

absent current transfers, the extreme poverty rate would be roughly double its Mirella Sampaio

present level; the OECD, by contrast, has highlighted still-suboptimal poverty- (55-11) 4950-3289

mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

reduction outcomes (OECD, 2021). With the October general elections Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

approaching, we expect social programs to be a part of the political debate. In this Arthur Pereira, CFA

report, we review existing initiatives and potential new proposals, and assess their (55-11) 4950-4101

possible sector-level implications. arthur.pereira@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

• Benefits: The weight of social programs, across the three levels of government, Diego Celedon

accounted for 3.8% of the composition of average household income in 2024, (56-22) 425-5245

up from 3.7% the previous year. This is the second-highest figure in the diego.celedon@jpmorgan.com