618 Takeaways: Connect The Dots from Industry Trends, Parcel Volume and Expert: China (PRC) | Internet

研报英文原文证据摘录

618 Takeaways: Connect The Dots from Industry Trends, Parcel Volume and Expert: China (PRC) | Internet

China (PRC) | Internet EquityJuneResearch19, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Weekly parcel volume YoY growth618 Takeaways: Connect The Dots from

Industry Trends, Parcel Volume and Expert between 11 May and 8 Jun

Highlights (1) MOT: slowing industry parcel volume growth between 11

May and 14 Jun (8% YoY) vs last year (17% YoY); (2) NBS: industry GMV

growth is 2.6% YoY in May which is better than Apr but softer than 2M26;

(3) recent expert call on 5 Jun forecasts industry GMV to have slight YoY

.growth in 618; (4) JD: Number of users placing orders reached new high. By Source: Ministry of Transport, Jefferies

categories, supermarket recorded solid growth in both transaction volume

and user numbers. Exhibitand YoY2 growth- Online retail sales (tangible goods)

Slower growth seen in industry parcel volume trends between 11 May and 14 Jun. Our

analysis of weekly data points from the Ministry of Transport (MOT) shows the average weekly

industry parcel volume increased by 8% YoY between 11 May and 14 June (vs 17% YoY last

year). We view the slowdown in parcel volume not as a surprise to the street considering

industry trend since Mar. Our analysis shows (1) the weeks of 11 May and 18 May showed a

meaningful slowdown vs last year (2) weeks of 25 May and 1 Jun showed YoY improvement .Source: NBS, Jefferies

vs first two weeks; (3) softness is seen in the week of 8 Jun. Please refer to Exhibit 1 for details.

Industry GMV growth shows a better GMV trend in May vs Apr but still a slowdown vs the

first two months. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), GMV for physical goods

in the first 5M26 increased by5% YoY. This implies GMV grew 2.6% YoY in May (0.2% YoY

growth in Apr-26).