JPM CENTER FOR GEOPOLITICS, EQNR, BP

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM CENTER FOR GEOPOLITICS, EQNR, BP

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 19 June 2026

breach of buyers’ lifting obligations. - OPEC forecasts "robust growth" in global oil demand, with demand projected to rise to

113.3 million barrels a day in 2030 and 124.1 million barrels a day by 2050.The largest increments of oil demand growth will

come from Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, with India being the top contributor, adding 8.1 million barrels a day

over the outlook period.

J. P. Morgan View

- The market is likely to focus on the ramping up of flows through Hormuz rather than negotiation headlines, unless those issues

(chiefly over Lebanon, but later potentially over long-term control and management of the Strait) spill over into actually impeding

the reopening of the Strait. The debate amongst energy investors remains intense, with many arguing that the wall of physical

crude which will hit the market as a result of the resumption of Hormuz flows will drive prices materially lower, and others (such

as JPM) arguing that the damage on inventories has been done, and the ramp in demand over summer will send prices higher

again from here

Markets - SPX was up 22bps from the European close to finish 1.1% higher on the day (7,500). The index started higher, then

traded in a 60bps range for the rest of the day, to hold most of the gains. It is worth noting the outperformance of Nasdaq and

R2K. Cyclicals vs defensives +5% and Software versus semis -9.4%. Overall volumes were up 60% on 30 dma on rebalances as

oil, treasuries and USD rallied with gold lower. Consumer discretionary, tech and communication services were the best sectors