ASEAN FIRST TO MARKET

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ASEAN FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

ASEAN First to Market 19 June 2026

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ASEAN (Charnon Boonnuch), Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam

• As widely expected, the BI and the BSP hiked their policy rates by 25bp to 5.75% and 4.75%, respectively

• We maintain our forecast for another 25bp BI hike in July, but see risks tilted to more hikes

• We expect the BSP to hike by 25bp at the next five policy meetings, but the risks are tilted to fewer hikes

• We expect the BOT to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% next week and beyond

Thailand Equity Strategy (Khoi Vu, CFA/Rajiv Batra/Kae Pornpunnarath, CFA), Thailand

Oil price normalization opens a window for mean reversion trade

The Thai SET index continues to defy gravity, extending the rally by nearly 5%pt over the last one month. Would the US-Iran

peace deal and oil price normalization provide an additional boost to equities? We believe the answer would be

different for different sectors. Energy, Utilities, and Materials sectors' profitability outlook would likely reverse after a period of

strong upgrades. On the flip side, the consumer sector should benefit from lower input costs and recovering consumer

confidence. However, the headwinds have not fully abated, as reduced tourism flows, El Niño risk, and limited room for further

fiscal stimulus could curb optimism. We believe that oil price normalization could open a short-term window for a mean

reversion trade, which would focus on: (1) Stocks with earnings revisions that could turn positive; (2) Stocks with valuation de-

rated in the last three months with chances of reversals; and (3) Stocks that got sold off by foreign investors and could see

flows reverse. (See Table 2,3,4).