Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – S&P Global Inc (SPGI.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

29 Jul 2026 - 03

Ratings Revenue Growth (%) 7.3 8.5 7.3 7.3 Q2 2026 S&P Global Inc Earnings Release

Aug 2026

Market Intelligence Revenue Growth 28 Oct 2026 - 6.2 6.1 6.7 6.7 Q3 2026 S&P Global Inc Earnings Release (%) 02 Nov 2026

Index Revenue Growth (%) 13.9 12.0 6.7 7.4

Commoditities Insights Organic

7.3 5.0 6.5 6.5

Growth (%)

Total Organic Revenue Growth (%) 7.8 7.7 7.1 7.2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Issuance growth RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Margin expansion Stronger debt issuance from AI infrastructure

Continued shift to passive investing financing, M&A recovery, refi, and/or GDP Sales / 17,745

Pricing power AI drives growth in MI Revenue 17,454 17,949

Margin efficiencies from AI ($, mm) 17,706

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Equity market strength

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 9,218 0-10% China and India EBITDA Worse issuance due to uncertainty, pull- 9,009 9,311

0-10% India forward, wide spreads, lower AI infrastructure ($, mm) 9,196

0-10% Japan financing

0-10% Latin America Intensifying AI competition drives share loss in

0-10% MEA MI EPS 22.46

0-10% Mainland China Equity market weakness ($) 21.79 22.68

0-10% UK Investment in AI yields limited results 22.21

20-30% Europe ex UK

60-70% North America Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 59.4%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Net Exposure 7.5%

1/5 24 Month 2/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content.