Belgium and Netherlands Diversified Banks: Benelux Banks Monthly, June 2026: ABN Still Preferred

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Belgium and Netherlands Diversified Banks: Benelux Banks Monthly, June 2026: ABN Still Preferred

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18 Jun 2026 08:57:13 ET │ 44 pages

Belgium and Netherlands Diversified

Banks

Benelux Banks Monthly, June 2026: ABN Still Preferred

Shrey Srivastava AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-2608

shrey.srivastava@citi.com

Despite ABN’s ~15% outperformance vs SX7E since 1Q26 results, we still

believe it stands out as an idiosyncratic opportunity. It is also our preferred Anand Demble

way to play higher ECB rates, driven by their barbell replication portfolio +44-20-7986-4056

strategy (more details here) and consensus NII/guidance being relatively anand.gopal.demble@citi.com

conservative, in our view. We also remain above consensus fees at ING,

Andre Nemecdriven by rapid conversion of its customer base to mobile primary customers

(we also note the 3.5% deposit offer in Spain as an example of smaller, more +44-20-7986-2889

targeted campaigns) Our preference order is as follows: ABN (Buy) > ING andre.nemec@citi.com

(Buy) > KBC (Neutral).

Consensus Earnings Revisions and Views — We continue to see 2026 consensus

EPS upgrades at ABN, having increased by ~2% in the last month (on NII, fees, and

costs). Over the same period, ING has seen ~0.4% EPS upgrades, while KBC has

seen ~2% downgrades on slightly lower NII.

Volume Developments Across Markets — The Netherlands has seen solid loan

growth quarter-to-date (QTD) at ~1% (driven by ~2% corporate loan growth), and

0.4% household deposit growth. Belgium has also seen decent volume trends at

~0.7/-0.6% loan/deposit growth over the period. Germany by contrast saw flattish

loan volumes QTD and ~0.4% deposit growth (driven by ~0.5% household deposit

growth). This particularly benefits ABN, in our view (who guides for ~3-4%