Brazil: Potential effects of a shorter workweek on the CPI

研报英文原文证据摘录

Brazil: Potential effects of a shorter workweek on the CPI

Vinicius Moreira (55-11) 4950-3195 Mirella Sampaio (55-11) 4950-3289 Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A Nvinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. 18 June 2026

Gustavo Ribeiro (55-11) 4950-4059

gustavo.ribeiro@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

Brazil: Potential effects of a tivity and automation gains, and other factors (Figure 1). The

impact would be staggered and modest, but it arrives at a

shorter workweek on the CPI moment when other upside risks to inflation are also building

— including El Niño, the rise in global prices following the

• Following approval in Lower House, the Senate is Middle East conflict, and resilient economic growth.

debating a reduction of the workweek in Brazil

• While providing more time for other activities, it Caveats — read these first

would raise costs for companies Given the uniqueness of such a policy change, and the rela-

• We estimate that this reduction could raise the CPI by tively rapid transition envisaged, it is unclear how it would

up to 1 percentage point over the next two years propagate through the Brazilian economy. Our analysis

departs from a partial equilibrium under a fixed-coefficient

• Mitigating factors exist: productivity and automation propagation framework. This is not a general equilibrium gains, margin compression, and labor substitution

estimate, which would allow for a series of adjustments

The changes to the workweek under discussion in Brazil's across the economic chain. In this context, we identify several

Congress would provide more free time for workers, but a factors that could reduce the policy’s economic costs.