Ryohin Keikaku Deep Dive: Muji, a Zen garden with thousands of different stones

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ryohin Keikaku Deep Dive: Muji, a Zen garden with thousands of different stones

Yugo Shima +81 3 6777 6994 yugo.shima@bernsteinsg.com 18 June 2026

DETAILS

RYOHIN KEIKAKU :NO-BRAND AS A GLOBAL BRAND (MARKET-PERFORM, PT= ¥3,700)

TOTAL SCORE: 4.2 / 6.0

Market-Perform, PT ¥3,700 (c.4% upside). We diverge from consensus not on direction, but on pace. The "Second

Founding" transformation is genuine — FY2025 delivered three consecutive years of record profits and OPM of 9.4%

— but management's observed preference for brand-first discipline over volume-first expansion places natural

boundaries on the growth trajectory. We sit in line with consensus for FY2026–FY2028.

INVESTMENT THESIS

(1) Brand-first discipline is the defining strategic choice — and the source of near-term pace limitation. The "Second

Founding" (July 2021) repositioned MUJI from "aspirational urban lifestyle" to "daily life infrastructure," delivering accelerating

revenue growth (+9.4% in FY2022 to +18.6% in FY2025) and a decade-high OPM of 9.4%. Yet the most revealing signal

lies in what has been pared back: the FY2026 downward revisions (Japan 60 new stores →45, with only 40 actually planned;

China 30→25) reflect management's deliberate choice to prioritize long-term brand integrity over short-term scale expansion

— the active application of strategic discipline. This prudence preserves long-term brand integrity, but it also means our model

diverges from consensus on pace across all regions, including the prime-location-led Western re-entry anchored by "MUJI

Rivoli" on Rue de Rivoli.

(2) China validates the thesis — but concentration is the counterweight. The "everyday use" repositioning aligned

precisely with China's shift toward tǎng píng (lying flat) and xiāofèi jiàngjí (consumption downgrade) from 2022.