AI Costs Are Manageable; Expect Monetization to be the Next Story

研报英文原文证据摘录

AI Costs Are Manageable; Expect Monetization to be the Next Story

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Shopify 17 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United States SHOP.OQ SHOP US Price target (USD) 175.00 Price at 15 Jun 26 112.49

52-week range 179.01 – 95.40

TMT

Software Valuation & Risks

AI Costs Are Manageable; Expect

Monetization to be the Next Story BhavinResearchShah,AnalystCFA

+1-212-250-6775

Following 1Q26 results, investor focus has increasingly shifted toward the impact

Brad Zelnick of Generative AI on Shopify’s financial model. Specifically, concerns have Research Analyst

emerged that subscription gross margins could remain under pressure due to +1-212-250-8563

incremental compute costs associated with Sidekick. As a result, some investors

view Shopify as at risk of being grouped with software peers that have yet to Chris Fountain

Research Associate demonstrate a clear path to AI monetization while seeing gross margins

+1-212-250-1575

compress. Against this backdrop, we attempt to quantify the financial impact of

compute-intensive AI adoption and assess how these costs are flowing through Nick Giovacchini

Subscription Solutions cost of revenue and gross margin. Importantly, we believe Research Associate

these cost pressures are more than offset by the significant productivity gains +1-212-250-9075

and merchant value delivered by Sidekick, as evidenced by rapid adoption and

positive user feedback. As a result, we expect Shopify will be able to monetize

Sidekick through price increases on its core subscription tiers over the next

several quarters.

We estimate Sidekick-related AI expenses were approximately ~$5mn in 1Q26

which on an annualized basis would equate to a ~$20mn+ impact (assuming

continued usage growth).