Indonesia: Demand Conundrum

研报英文原文证据摘录

Indonesia: Demand Conundrum

Idea

June 18, 2026 12:11 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MEnergy, Utilities & Materials | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

Indonesia: Demand Conundrum Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.comRyan M Heng +65 6834-6719

Ryan.Heng@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6465

Domestic consumption underperformance has driven a Vivek Rajamani

sustained de-rating in multiples across B2C verticals in our EquityVivek.Rajamani@morganstanley.comAnalyst +65 6834-6740

Indonesia coverage. In contrast, B2B segments, particularly coal Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

and equipment sales, have been more resilient. We continue to Hinal Choudhary

Research Associate

prefer coal equipment and gold names in a regional context. Hinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2044

Pranitha Shetty

Key Takeaways ResearchPranitha.Shetty@morganstanley.comAssociate +91 22 6118-3022

The return of coal in Asia's power mix should support Indonesia coal producers

and equipment players. Clearer policy direction is key to share price recovery.

Natural gas: Consumption growth has been consistently week since 2019, while

ad hoc changes to regulated margins in gas distribution act as a key overhang.

Cement least preferred: Pricing power is capped by competition, posing margin ASEAN Energy and Materials

Asia Pacific

risks, YTD demand strength may unwind following recent price hikes. Industry View Attractive

Key changes: We move both PGAS and INTP to EW, as they trade at ~65-70%

Exhib it 2 : What's changed within our discounts to replacement cost and offer 12-15%+ FCF yields despite weak

Indonesia coverage? consumption.

Stock Old Rating OldPrice Target (IDR)New CMPVs(%) CurrencyEPS 2026e % change2027ein EPS 2028e