GLOBAL EQUITY RESEARCH

研报英文原文证据摘录

GLOBAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Global Equity Research

International First to Market 17 June 2026

Top Stories

Momentum Fusion: The Alchemy of Trend-Following (Khuram Chaudhry/Ayub Hanif, PhD/Robert Smith, PhD/

Arun Jain/Masanari Takada)

Technical & fundamental trend capture, signal blending and crash-risk control

Momentum investing relies on the persistence of trends, but the real challenge is knowing which trends deserve capital and

which are merely crash-risk in disguise. In this note, we build a disciplined momentum framework by testing signals across

technical, fundamental, sentiment, and NLP families, then combine the strongest signals into a more resilient Momentum

Composite. This framework moves from signal discovery to portfolio construction: build composites, tame crash-risk with

volatility scaling, purify exposures, manage transaction costs, and condition allocations using drawdown mitigation tools. The

result is not just a single momentum signal, but a full investment process: 1) identify persistent trends, 2) combine technical and

fundamental confirmation, 3) scale exposure when risk regimes deteriorate, and 4) implement where alpha survives real-world

frictions.

BMW (Jose M Asumendi) (BMW GR, OW, PT €82.00), Germany

A Wake-Up Call for the Auto Industry

BMW has cut its earnings guidance for the year from an automotive margin range of 4-6% to now 1-3%, chiefly related to a

deterioration of the business model in China as well as one-time impacts, which has also led to the free cash flow guidance

now being at > €2.5bn from previously > €4.5bn. The firm has already embarked on a cost-cutting offensive across Europe and

China in order to protect free cash flow, allowing the firm to accelerate the product momentum from a point of balance sheet

strength.