Q2 Preview: A Transition Quarter Before H2 Inflection

研报英文原文证据摘录

Q2 Preview: A Transition Quarter Before H2 Inflection

ovides additional upside. We forecast adj.

EBITA margin of 12.1% (-10bps y/y) in Q2e, effectively implying that margins appear decoupled

from short-term growth volatility, reinforcing the quality of the earnings profile. Chart 1 - We expect an acceleration in organic

growth and continued margin expansion in

M&A intact, but credibility now key. The strategic rationale for M&A remains unchanged: a '27e-'28e

fragmented market, solid balance sheet (1.9x ND/EBITDA), and proven integration capability 40,000 11.5% 12.0%11.5%

continue to support bolt-on activity as a core value driver. However, the debate has shifted from 11.1%

10.8% 11.0%

10.6% 10.7%capacity to execution. Following a slower period of deal flow, investor focus is increasingly on 30,000 10.6%

20,000conversion, i.e. whether Beijer Ref can maintain its historical compounding pace. This is less about 10.5% 9.8% 10.0%

10,000structural constraints and more about timing and pipeline clarity, with improved visibility on deal 9.5%

9.0%conversion likely required to unlock incremental upside. 0 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

. Net sales, SEKm Adj. EBITA margin, %

Overhang cleared, valuation disconnect persists. EQT’s exit removes a long-standing technical Source: Company data, Jefferies

overhang, shifting focus back to fundamentals. At 18x EV/EBIT (’27e), the shares trade below both Chart 2 - At 18x '27e EV/EBIT, Beijer Ref trades

at a 30% discount to its 5yr historic avg and a

historical levels and Swedish compounder peers, despite no structural change. While a re-rating 20% discount to Swedish compounders

likely requires H2 organic acceleration, current valuation already discounts a prolonged slowdown. Peers: Addtech, Lifco, Indutrade, Lagercrantz