Smoother Conditions Ahead

研报英文原文证据摘录

Smoother Conditions Ahead

nsions ahead of US- Cons. Source: Factset

Iran MoU. Earnings drag expected to be up to c. $50m in 4Q. This reflects customer forward

bookings via Middle East being cancelled or rerouted through lower margin carriers and

Figure 8 - FLT PE vs ASX 200 (Industrials) PEbooking deferrals particularly for longer-haul travel.

24x

Corporate remains solid: Corporate business was profitable in 4Q but was less impacted than 21x

Leisure and continued to deliver "strong profit growth" with contract win pipeline accelerating 18x

15x

late in FY26. Competitor disruption & consolidation is supportive and there is a large runway 12x

given small market share position in highly fragmented market. 9x

6x

DFAT eases Middle East travel advice: Australia has eased travel advice for Bahrain, Israel, Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE from "Do Not Travel" to "Reconsider your need to travel". This should

result in higher volumes transiting via Middle East. FLT ASX 200 (Industrials)

.

Source: Source: Factset. NB: 12mth fwd

History suggests travel recovers quickly: ABS short-term resident departure data implies

travel tends to recover quickly as conflict subsides. This was observed in March/April 2025 FY26 estimates cut 5% but upgrades from

and June/July 2025 following outbursts of conflict in the Middle East. Rapid demand recovery FY27 onwards - FY26 JEFe was already

was similar coming out of COVID-19 as well as 2001-2003 following 9/11 & SARS. Fig 4-5. below guidance but we have made further

cuts to reflect new guidance. However,

Market ascribing very little value to Leisure: Applying a 10x EV/EBITDA multiple to Corporate with a peace deal more likely & Aust