Taking a breather

研报英文原文证据摘录

Taking a breather

IdeaM

Risk Reward – Resmed Inc (RMD.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

US device growth (%) 8.7 7.1 7.3 2.0

ROW device growth (%) 9.6 10.3 4.6 4.0

US mask growth (%) 11.9 12.8 7.0 5.1

ROW mask growth (%) 8.8 14.5 6.5 4.0

EBIT margin (%) 34.3 36.3 36.0 35.8

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Continued penetration of the OSA market RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Jun 2026e

High growth in high-margin mask/disposable Increased diagnosis of OSA, supporting

sales increased TAM penetration Sales / 5,656

Patient compliance/adherence Higher market share in CPAP Revenue 5,635 5,672

New product launches Favorable reimbursement changes (US$, mn) 5,650

Better-than-expected operating leverage

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 2,055

EBIT 0-10% Japan More substantial impacts associated with the 1,743 2,061

(US$, mn)

0-10% Latin America uptake of GLP-1 RA 2,024

0-10% Mainland China Adverse price or reimbursement changes

0-10% UK Philips returning to the US market ahead of

1,631

10-20% Europe ex UK expectations Net income

1,511 1,637 60-70% North America Component cost inflation (US$, mn)

1,616

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

11.18

EPS Inst. Owners, % Active 39.9% 10.42 11.23

MS ALPHA MODELS (US$)

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.2x 11.09

1/5 24 Month 1/5 3 Month HF Sector Net Exposure 17.5%

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market