Auto1: Strong long-term guidance ahead of its CMD - Merchant alone could be worth €8bn+. Remains our key pick in the space

研报英文原文证据摘录

Auto1: Strong long-term guidance ahead of its CMD - Merchant alone could be worth €8bn+. Remains our key pick in the space

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

17 June 2026

Auto1

Strong long-term guidance ahead of its CMD - Overweight

Merchant alone could be worth €8bn+. Remains our key AG1G.DE, AG1 GR

pick in the space Price (16 Jun 26):€23.54

Price Target (Dec-27):€37.00

Our Take: Ahead of today’s CMD, Auto1 released updated “long-term targets” European Internet

AC(with the 2026 guidance reiterated) that are materially ahead of consensus Marcus Diebel

expectations across both divisions. For the Merchant business, management are (44-20) 7742-4447

targeting volume growth of 10-15%, versus JPMe of <5%/year; for Retail, the marcus.diebel@jpmorgan.com

company is guiding to 20-40% growth versus our 20%. Beyond volumes, implied J.P. Morgan Securities plc

GPU (gross profit per unit) also screens meaningfully above consensus: AUTO1 Lara Simpson

indicates €1,080-1,200 versus our €1,042 in 2028 for Merchant, and €3,880-4,470 (44-20) 7134-3637

lara.simpson@jpmorgan.com

versus our €2,864 in 2028 for Retail. Implied margins are lower than previously J.P. Morgan Securities plc

guided 5-9%, but that is acceptable, we believe, given the strong volume growth.

Carmen Graves

Overall, we view the update as pointing to long-term earnings power that is ~30% (44-20) 3493 0506

ahead of 2028 consensus estimates (depending on how investors interpret “long carmen.graves@jpmorgan.com

term”; we assume 2028/2029). The lack of cash flow guidance might be a focus for J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the bears, but we argue that EBITDA cash conversion will increase over time. The Thyagarajan J

name continues to be our top pick in the Internet sector, and we previously (91-22) 6157-5005