Lundin Mining Corp: CMD First Take - 2026 guidance broadly unchanged, still targeting Vicuna FID by YE‘26 for 2030 first production

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Lundin Mining Corp: CMD First Take - 2026 guidance broadly unchanged, still targeting Vicuna FID by YE‘26 for 2030 first production

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

17 June 2026

Lundin Mining Corp

CMD First Take - 2026 guidance broadly unchanged, Underweight

still targeting Vicuna FID by YE’26 for 2030 first LUN.TO, LUN CN

production Price (16 Jun 26):C$41.14

Price Target (Dec-27):C$27.80

Our Take – guidance broadly unchanged, still targeting Vicuna FID by European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACYE’26: Lundin Mining has published a press release and the presentation ahead Patrick Jones

of its Capital Markets Day today (14.00 GMT, 09:00 EST). The key points include: (44-20) 7742-5964

1) 2026 guidance is broadly unchanged (Chapada C1 opex guidance cut, group patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

capex raised ~3%); 2) indicative 2026-30 earnings & cash flow forecasts, with 5- J.P. Morgan Securities plc

year cumulative indicative EBITDA in line vs Bloomberg Consensus; and 3) Dominic O'Kane

Mgmt still target Vicuna FID by YE’26 and first output by 2030 following the (44-20) 7742-6729

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

project’s RIGI approval by the Argentina government yesterday (link), and 4) J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Caserones now targeting ~40ktpa cathode output (prev 35ktpa nameplate) but the

Rosie Jia

Sauva project first output target has modestly slipped to Q1’29 (vs H2’28 prev). (44-20) 3493-7448

In our CMD preview last week (link), we flagged that LUN could modestly rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

increase 2027-28 production guidance but we saw upside risks to 2026 C1 opex J.P. Morgan Securities plc

guidance. LUN Mgmt has not revised 2027/28 production guidance but the Varun Bhattad

increased target for Caserones cathode output indicates modest upside to last (91-22) 6157-5027