CRUDE: 20% upside? CC with Natasha Kaneva 1400 UKT Today

研报英文原文证据摘录

CRUDE: 20% upside? CC with Natasha Kaneva 1400 UKT Today

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 16 June 2026

- This means that whilst when Natasha published her updated forecasts on 12th May her new numbers were somewhat above the

forward curve in Q3/Q426 and below from Q127 (see JPM forecasts in Green on the chart on left, below), as of today she is now

a long way above out to the end of H127 and now only below from Q327 onwards (chart on right)

For a full discussion of the underlying drivers of these forecasts and risks to the upside and downside, join us for a CC

today at 1400 UKT/0900 EDT with JPM’s Global Head of Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (details to follow

separate email)

Stocks – risk / reward more balanced on oils, infra should still outperform

- Our commodity forecasts call for oil prices to be c20% above current levels for the rest of 2026 and only falling below current

forward curves in H227. For EU gas, we also see month-ahead TTF rising sharply in order to attract much-needed LNG to Europe

and refill gas storage levels at close to historic lows, with JPMe at €55/MWh in Q3 and €60/MWh in Q4 vs €42/MWh now.

- These dynamics should, on the face of it be supportive both Oil and Utility equities. Some high level thoughts below, happy to

discuss in detail

Oil & Gas - buy SPM, TE and look at adding Shell and Galp

- Whilst a 20% rally in spot Brent prices from here should be supportive Oil equities, as Matt Lofting pointed out in EU Oil &

Gas: Valuation and sensitivity screens at the 100-day marker, the group has recently exhibited a much stronger correlation to 1-2Y

forward O&G prices rather than spot.