The Viewpoint: Lower oil prices boost the industrial super-cycle

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The Viewpoint: Lower oil prices boost the industrial super-cycle

Idea

June 16, 2026 05:28 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia LimitedMAsia Economics | Asia Pacific Chetan Ahya

Chief Asia Economist

The Viewpoint: Lower oil prices Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. +852 2239-7812

Derrick Y Kam

Asia Economistboost the industrial super-cycle Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.com +65 6834-8272

Lower oil prices pose modest upside risks to Asia’s growth Morgan Stanley Asia Limited

Jonathan Cheung

Economistoutlook, especially for the region ex China because they will

Jonathan.Cheung@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5652

boost the industrial super-cycle. As a result, we also see upside

Kelly Wang

risks to our policy rate forecasts. Economist

Kelly.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0891

Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

Sudhanshu Agarwal

With the progress on a US-Iran peace deal, dated Brent prices have declined Economist

Sudhanshu.Agarwal@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-4568

below US$85/bbl from a peak of US$144/bbl and vs. $72/bbl on February 26.

Our global oil strategist now sees dated Brent price settling at around US$80/

bbl from 4Q26 onwards.

We see modest upside risks to Asia’s growth outlook – the region is a key

beneficiary of lower prices given its exposure to imported energy.

Moreover, lower energy prices will provide a boost to the ongoing industrial and

capex super-cycle.

Just as we see upside risks to growth, we also see upside risks to our policy rate

forecasts.

Implications by economy:

India, the Philippines, and Indonesia: These economies benefit the most,

considering both their oil exposure and the starting situation around the balance of

payments. Specifically for India, there were also announced policy measures to