CSN & CMIN Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

CSN & CMIN Model Update

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

16 June 2026

CSN & CMIN

Model Update

We are updating our models to incorporate 1Q26 results and include the latest LatAm Basic Materials

ACmacro and FX estimates. In the steel unit, we are increasing our estimates to reflect Rodolfo Angele, CFA

the better momentum in the industry, with higher prices more than offsetting higher (55-11) 4950-3888

costs in the sector. On the other hand, the mining sector should face a challenging rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

2Q. As we flagged previously, because of a maintenance stoppage, the company Tathiane Martins Candini

should have lower volumes y/y, impacting results. In the unit, we are also (55-11) 4950-4116

increasing iron ore prices by 6% for 2026 and 5% for 2027, and additionally we tathiane.m.candini@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

have raised our real long-term prices from $80/t to $90/t. For short-term prices, the

increase was done to reflect higher marginal costs. In the long-term revision, the

increase was led by the recent reduction in product quality at many miners, which

led to a higher cost/Fe unit. In addition, general inflationary pressures for raw

materials, labor, and capex have been evident in mining operations. Finally, given

the persistent run rates in Chinese steel output, we expect Simandou to impact

pricing dynamics less than previously expected.

Reports:

• Iron ore: Prices Recalibrate Higher as Marginal Costs Increase; Raising Short-

Term Prices and Long-Term Price

• Brazil Iron Ore & Steel: Secex May Data: Another Month, Another Steel

Import Contraction

• CSN & CMIN: 1Q26 Results: CMIN and Cement units drive beat to JPMe;

Negative on FCF - Neutral

• CSN & CMIN: Straight from the Call

Equity Ratings and Price Targets