JPM | APAC THEMATICS - WTI -30% past 1m: Broadening out / Fed: Key to watch from Warsh / Japan: BoJ gives no reason to cover JPY shorts / China: Lower 2Q GDP / HF Positioning = Starting to diversify

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - WTI -30% past 1m: Broadening out / Fed: Key to watch from Warsh / Japan: BoJ gives no reason to cover JPY shorts / China: Lower 2Q GDP / HF Positioning = Starting to diversify

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

16 June 2026

- US Market Thematics- Breadth returns... with a steady oil decline (Marissa Gitler). Breadth improved as RSP outperformed

SPY with the megacap tech squeeze digested. Central banks were broadly as expected (RBA hold with a hawkish bias; BoJ hike

alongside a plan to slow QT growth in 2027), and USTs/EGBs bull-flattened even as APAC curves bear-steepened. The key cross-

asset driver was crude extending its recent decline (-3%), reinforcing the pullback in inflation/yield pressure. On US/Iran, Trump

said the US is “in no rush to get the nuclear material”. This week’s main event is Warsh’s first FOMC meeting - where markets

anticipate a neutral-to-hawkish lean focused more on balance sheet/QT, RMPs, MBS runoff, potential dots-versus-presser tension,

and credibility framing around inflation expectations.

FROM THE FRANCHISE… 3x which caught my eye

- HK/China Capital Flows- A clearer framework… bank & CNY implications (Katherine Lei). China’s policymakers have

introduced multiple regulatory updates affecting capital flows in recent months, including tighter outbound investment rules.

Taken together, these reflect a mix of relaxation and tightening with differing implications for cross-border flows, and we view

them as part of a broader effort to complete a comprehensive capital-flow regulatory framework rather than a move to restrict

capital outflows. From an FX perspective, we expect the latest changes to provide a modest near-term CNY tailwind, but the

medium-term implications are less clear.