Stocktake: Australian Consumer Primer for 17 June 2026 – RBA, CommBank transaction data, Flight Centre

研报英文原文证据摘录

Stocktake: Australian Consumer Primer for 17 June 2026 – RBA, CommBank transaction data, Flight Centre

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

17 June 2026

Stocktake

Australian Consumer Primer for 17 June 2026 – RBA,

CommBank transaction data, Flight Centre

ACKey themes we are exploring today: AustralianBryan RaymondConsumer Sector

(61-2) 9003-6750

• RBA on hold but maintains hiking bias. The June RBA meeting was bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

relatively uneventful - a unanimous (9-0) on-hold decision, while maintaining Christina Kim

(61-2) 9003-7082

a hiking bias to manage expectations of potential cuts, stating “[the board] will christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

do what it considers necessary… including increasing the cash rate further if J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

required”. J.P. Morgan economist Ben Jarman continues to see this rate hiking

cycle as complete, as June quarter CPI is tracking below RBA expectations

from May, and is the period with the greatest inflationary risk, even if the

inflation pass through mechanism has further to run. In terms of potential cuts,

Governor Bullock gave the dovish remark “If you wait until you see it you

might be too late.” Nevertheless, Ben considers the bar for the next easing cycle

to be higher than it was in 2025.

• CommBank transaction data highlights strong spending in May. The

CommBank Household Spending Indicator (HSI) for May was solid overall

(+4.5% YoY in original terms and +5.3% YoY seasonally adjusted) but slowed

in original terms from 5.5% YoY in April to 4.5% in May. Overall retail

spending accelerated from +5.2% YoY in April to +5.9% YoY in May, while

non-retail spending slowed from +5.8% YoY in April to +3.1% YoY in May.

Discretionary spending improved from +4.2% YoY in April to +5.1% YoY in