Update on China coking coal disruptions: China coking coal supply resumes, but recovery remains uneven; seaborne prices stable for now

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Update on China coking coal disruptions: China coking coal supply resumes, but recovery remains uneven; seaborne prices stable for now

Global Markets Research

16 June 2026India Metals

EQUITY: METALS & MINING

Update on China coking coal disruptions Research Analysts

India Metals & Mining

China coking coal supply resumes, but recovery remains Jashandeep Singh Chadha - NFASL

jashandeep.singhchadha@nomura.comuneven; seaborne prices stable for now

+91 22 40374124

Mine restarts underway, but supply normalization remains gradual, reinforcing our

regulatory-risk thesis

Following the fatal Shanxi mine accident in late May-26 (link), several suspended coking

coal mines have gradually resumed operations. According to a Mysteel survey (link), 77

mines had restarted by 11 June 2026, representing around 56% of the suspended 137

mines in Shanxi since 23 May 2026 (Fig.9). However, the recovery remains uneven,

with some mines reportedly suspending operations again after only a few days of

resumption amid intensified safety inspections. Notably, authorities have expanded

inspections across major mining regions, particularly targeting illegal and hidden mining

tunnels (link).

China domestic coking coal prices continue to reflect supply concerns

Despite resumption of some mining activity, domestic prices reflect uncertainties around

coal availability. China’s spot domestic coking coal price has climbed to USD270/t, up

more than 10% since the incident (Fig.8), suggesting the market is pricing in a broader

tightening in domestic steelmaking raw material availability rather than an isolated

operational event.

Australian exports to China rise as buyers seek seaborne supply

Recent developments strengthen our view that prolonged safety-led disruptions in China