Strong earnings growth momentum: Fast-growing FMCG firm with potential for 2025-28F NPAT CAGR of +22%; maintain Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Strong earnings growth momentum: Fast-growing FMCG firm with potential for 2025-28F NPAT CAGR of +22%; maintain Buy

e company’s planned

increase of distribution points by +26% y-y to lower opex, due to proximity advantages;

notably, logistics cost is the second-largest component next to packaging. Hence, we think Source: LSEG, Nomura

higher imported raw material packaging costs can be mitigated to an extent; we believe

CLEO’s margin performance should exceed market expectations.

Research Analysts

Maintain Buy recommendation

Indonesia Research TeamWe lower our FY26/27F earnings by 8%/2% due to higher packaging cost pressure. We

Heng Siong Kong - NSMmaintain Buy rating with a lower TP of IDR620 (vs IDR680 previously), based on an

hengsiong.kong@nomura.com

unchanged target P/E of 32.8x FY26F. For CLEO, we maintain our target P/E premium over +603 2027 6894

FMCG peers due to its sizable upside potential for market share, given its low base with a 4%

market share currently, while the first/second largest players hold an estimated 30%/8% share Onshore expert

(according to Numerator). CLEO’s competitive advantage through 32 factories (the most

Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id),widespread factories in the FMCG industry) with >9K selling agents should help it outpace

peers in terms of product availability, and in turn accelerate its capability to gain market share. Samuel Christian

The stock currently trades at 20x FY26F P/E. A downside risk is the stock’s low daily turnover. (samuel.christian@verdhana.id),

Year-end 31 Dec FY25 FY26F FY27F FY28F

Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id),Currency (IDR) Actual Old New Old New Old New

and

Revenue (bn) 2,826 3,347 3,444 3,824 4,009 0 4,625

Reported net profit (bn) 382 497 455 576 562 0 692 Nayla Yasmin