S&P Global Mobility LVP June Forecast - Small Global Cut but China Weak

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S&P Global Mobility LVP June Forecast - Small Global Cut but China Weak

Global | Autos & Auto Parts EquityJuneResearch12, 2026

S&P Global Mobility LVP June Forecast -

Small Global Cut but China Weak

A small cuts to 2026 (-0.2pp to -2.6% y/y) and 2027 ~unchanged (+0.2pp to

+1.0% y/y) with S&P still assuming sustained high oil prices through 2027.

Main change being a further cut to China on continued weak demand. NA

and Europe saw small upgrades mostly on actual production surprising,

with Renault and Stellantis highlighted in Europe.

Global FY25 production has settled at 93.1m, +3.9% y/y.

Global FY26 production sees a -199k downgrade to 90.68m, -2.6% y/y (-0.2pp). The base

case continues to assume a sustained high oil prices through 2027.

NA is upgraded +0.3pp to -1.8% y/y (+49k) on incoming production results (as opposed

to forward outlook). S&P assumes automakers will not cut production until there is strong

evidence of demand slowdown, which they expect from Q4.

China is -360k / -1.1pp to -4.0% y/y. Domestic demand continues to weaken while exports

partially offset with main destinations being SEA, ME, LATAM, and parts of Europe.

Europe ex-Russia +64k / +0.4pp to -2.5% y/y. Upgrade mainly on actual production being

stronger than expected, especially at Stellantis and Renault. Tesla is expected stronger from

4Q26 with capacity increasing from October. VW-MEB entry ramp-up has been faster than

expected, raising Q4 expectations.

FY27 is expected +1.0% y/y (+0.2pp / +34k) to 91.61m. NA is expected +0.1% y/y (+0.1pp /

+54k). China is expected +1.1% y/y (+0.7pp / -144k). Europe ex-Russia is expected -0.3% y/y

(+0.1pp / +76k) on demand upgrade.

Exhibit 1 - S&P Global Mobility regional production forecast - latest % y/y and changes vs last month's

estimates

Latest S&P est.