ANZ Airlines and Travel: Checking in on topical earnings risks

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ANZ Airlines and Travel: Checking in on topical earnings risks

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ANZ Airlines and Travel Equities

AustraliaChecking in on topical earnings risks

Airlines

Andre Fromyhr

Middle East conflict has persisted, but fuel is already down from the peak Analyst

Crude and jet fuel prices have been moderating (spot Brent ~US$90/bbl and jet ~US andre.fromyhr@ubs.com

$130/bbl) and may moderate further if a peace deal is signed on June 19. Our existing +61-3-9242-6470

crude oil assumptions, from our most recent update in April (see QAN and VGN), lie Bradley Beckett

between a June Middle East conflict resolution ('Scenario 1') and a late July one Analyst

('Scenario 2') as described in the UBS global oil outlook (see: Australia Energy Sector bradley.beckett@ubs.com

Update). We think this is sufficiently balanced given remaining uncertainty. While our +61-3-9242 6008

crude assumptions are unchanged, we did increase our average jet refining margin over Rae El Adam

the next 12 months (now US$54 in 2H26E, US$40 in 1H27E, US$30 in 2H27E). Associate Analyst

rae.el-adam@ubs.com

Latest capacity schedules suggest a deeper impact into FY27... +61-3-9242 6180

Airlines globally have reacted to higher fuel with higher fares and lower capacity. While

we already reflected these settings for 1H27, we’ve made additional modest capacity

reductions in our forecasts based on the latest forward schedules – particularly given the

airlines are in the midst of planning for the Australian summer schedule and reacting to

the booking demand activity since fuel prices rose. The forward schedules for 1H27

indicate QF Dom capacity flat, JQ Dom -1.2%, VA Dom -0.2%, QF Intl +4.9%, and JQ

Intl 2.1% (excl impact of JQ Asia closure), and VA Domestic flat.