China Two-Wheeler Sector Presentation: 2026 key themes: Strong EV sales overseas; delayed recovery of China‘s domestic 2W sales

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China Two-Wheeler Sector Presentation: 2026 key themes: Strong EV sales overseas; delayed recovery of China‘s domestic 2W sales

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China Two-Wheeler Sector Presentation Equities

China2026 key themes: Strong EV sales overseas;

delayed recovery of China's domestic 2W sales Automobiles

Wei Shen

Analyst

wei.shen@ubs.com

Overseas demand for electric two-wheelers accelerates from Q226E +86-21-3866 8897

The sales value of China's electric two-wheelers, including e-bikes, e-scooters and other Robin M. Farley

categories, has accelerated in Q226. Yadea flagged strong electric two-wheeler sales Analyst

volumes in ex-China, mainly ASEAN markets and reiterated its export target for a 70% robin.farley@ubs.com

YoY increase in 2026. Based on company guidance, Ninebot has seen strong demand +1-212-713 2060

for electric kick scooters in Europe in Q226. If oil prices remain elevated, we estimate Paul Gong

electric penetration to increase further in the global two-wheeler market. Analyst

paul.gong@ubs.com

Electric two-wheelers: Meaningful turnaround delayed until Q326E +852-2971 7868

China's electric two-wheeler demand slumped in Q126, with industry volumes down

20% and profits down over 50% YoY based on Aima and Ninebot 1Q26 results.

Demand has recovered slightly in Q226, but we believe a meaningful turnaround may

not materialise until Q326. We also think industry-wide wholesale and retail demand

may return to positive growth with sequentially improving margins in Q326E.

E-golf carts: Increasing penetration in US suburbs

In North America, golf carts are moving from golf courses to residential communities

and are emerging as a new short-distance mode of transport for some suburban

households.