Alpek Uncertainties on normalization after strong momentum, yet positive signals for dividends

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Alpek Uncertainties on normalization after strong momentum, yet positive signals for dividends

Global Research

14 June 2026ab

Alpek Equities

MexicoUncertainties on normalization after strong

momentum, yet positive signals for dividends Chemicals, Commodity

12-month rating Neutral *

12m price target P14.00Maintaining Neutral rating but increasing PT to P$14/sh

Prior : P10.00

As we incorporate 1Q26 results and the latest petrochemical spreads following

Middle East developments, we raise our price target to P$14/sh from P$10/sh while Price (12 Jun 2026) P11.95

maintaining a Neutral rating. Two key questions remain central: first, when and at RIC: ALPEKA.MX BBG: ALPEKA MM

what level will spreads normalize, and second, when will dividend payments

resume. On the first, we see a strong correlation with the resolution of geopolitical Trading data and key metrics

conflicts and normalization of global supply chains. In the interim, Alpek continues 52-wk range P12.80-8.09

to benefit from an improved spread environment, positioning it to potentially Market cap. P25.2b/US$1.47b

outperform in 2026 and generate positive FCF. This also supports the second Shares o/s 2,112m (COM)

question, as management has emphasized reducing leverage to 2.5x net debt/ Free float 18%

EBITDA (from 3.9x in 1Q26) before reinstating dividends. Based on our estimates of Avg. daily volume ('000) 5,816

US$745mn EBITDA in 2026 (+36% vs. guidance), we believe leverage could fall below Avg. daily value (m) P66.6

2.5x by YE, although uncertainty around 2027 and expectations of YoY decrease on Common s/h equity (12/26E) P24.8b

EBITDA may delay dividend resumption in the near term, supporting our Neutral. P/BV (12/26E) 1.0x

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.0x

Expecting a strong guidance review during 2Q26 results