Autoliv: Fairly priced: growth and margin delivery remain key debate

研报英文原文证据摘录

Autoliv: Fairly priced: growth and margin delivery remain key debate

P. As a result, while underlying

12/26E 10.23 10.49 3 10.42

growth drivers remain attractive, headline growth is likely to remain moderate and

12/27E 11.16 11.14 -0 12.10

somewhat diluted.

12/28E 11.65 11.91 2 13.52

Margin expansion: visible path, but gradual and execution-dependent Juan Perez-Carrascosa

Autoliv continues to demonstrate solid cost discipline and operational improvements, Analyst

juan-perez.carrascosa@ubs.comsupporting a path toward its ~12% mid-term EBIT margin target. However, our analysis

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suggests that margin expansion is increasingly driven by “defensive efficiencies”—

offsetting headwinds such as raw material inflation (e.g. ~$90m in 2026), tariffs and David Lesne

rising SG&A/R&D—rather than purely generating incremental upside. As such, while Analyst

david.lesne@ubs.com

margins should trend higher, we expect a gradual trajectory, slightly below more

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optimistic market expectations (consensus 12% in 2029E vs UBS 2030E) and

insufficient, on its own, to drive a material re-rating at the moment. Patrick Hummel, CFA

Analyst

patrick.hummel@ubs.com

Valuation: premium justified but upside limited under current assumptions

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Our DCF (11% cost of equity, 3% terminal growth) yields a fair value of ~$9bn or $122/

sh (previously US$110/sh). Autoliv trades at a premium to peers, supported by stronger

margins and cash generation, but this is largely justified. Upside would likely require a

combination of improving market mix, faster CPV expansion and consistent execution

delivery, particularly in Asia. Without clearer evidence on both growth acceleration and

sustained margin expansion, we see limited scope for further re-rating.