EM FI/FX Strategy: EEMEA: Four things to watch in the coming week

研报英文原文证据摘录

EM FI/FX Strategy: EEMEA: Four things to watch in the coming week

Global Research

15 June 2026ab

EM FI/FX Strategy Emerging Markets

Emerging MarketsEEMEA: Four things to watch in the coming

week Nimrod Mevorach

Strategist

nimrod.mevorach@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0779

Czech: CNB between an ECB hike and oil (Thu); PLNCZK around 2y lows Gyorgy Kovacs

This week's CNB meeting is a close call between a 25bps hike and no-change. UBS is Economist

leaning on the side of no-change while the Bloomberg consensus slightly skewed gyorgy.kovacs@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 7563

towards a hike. Communication-wise, Governor Michl said on Fri that a hike is a "real

possibility" after MPC member, Jan Prochazka, said to be 50:50 split between the two Anna Zadornova

outcomes. Why the CNB might stay on hold? Core inflation has been stable (2.9% yoy Economist

between Mar and May), headline is around the 2% target, while oil prices fell $13/bbl anna.zadornova@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 4212

since its previous meeting (7 May). By contrast, hawkish MPC members could argue that

in addition to last week's ECB rate hike, Fed hikes are now well priced (35bps for the

next 12m) while Czech wages dynamics are deviating from CNB model (8.1% yoy in

1Q26 vs CNB forecast of 7% yoy). We tend to think that even if a hike is delivered, the

bar for a hawkish guidance is high in the context of 80bps of hikes priced in over the

next 9m period. Note that Michl also said last week that a possible hike could lead to a

"period of assessment for some time". We are cautious CZK into the meeting also while

PLNCZK is around 2y lows. Elsewhere in CEE, Hungary Apr wages data, on Wed, could

reinforce UBS expectations for a 25bps rate cut next week (23 June).

S. Africa: Gold&oil reversal to take USDZAR < 16? May CPI (Wed) & signposts