JPM | The SoH unwinding Trade, MMG with 10%+ dilution, 39 conversations on Chalco, 30% higher gas & LNG prices? FMG Copper Deep Dive

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | The SoH unwinding Trade, MMG with 10%+ dilution, 39 conversations on Chalco, 30% higher gas & LNG prices? FMG Copper Deep Dive

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

16 June 2026

JPM | The SoH unwinding Trade, MMG with 10%+ dilution, 39

conversations on Chalco, 30% higher gas & LNG prices? FMG

Copper Deep Dive

Anmol Mehta

+852 2800 8896

anmol.mehta@jpmorgan.com

Good morning, the SoH unwinding trade unfolded in dramatic fashion yesterday post the weekend announcement of deal .

The disruption winners saw extremely sharp unwinds - EU Gas -9%; Aluminum -5%, Brent -5%, Thermal Coal -2%. This more

than reflected in APAC stock prices as “hiding money “ in the Energy, Chems & Aluminum equities unwound – PCHEM -15% as

the most crowded chem, Yankuang Coal -9%, Yancoal -7% in Coals, Santos, Ampol & Viva -8%/-7%/-6% and in Aluminum

Chalco-H -8% & Press Metal -6%.

The flip side was regrossing into the sell-offs that people REALLY want exposure to. 1) Golds - Zijin Gold +16% on (Shanghai

Gold prices +6% yesterday) and Evolution Mining +10%; 2) Electronic Materials (CCL) with KB Laminates +22%, Nanya

Plastics +10% & 3) Copper: Jiangxi Copper/CMOC +10%.

Most of this was expected, but the striking surprise to me was just how crowded Aluminum & Aluminum equities were.

Aluminum traded -5% yesterday even lower than Brent and has been firmly bucketed into the “SoH Reopening Losers” bucket –

with a sell first, ask questions later story. We disagree – JPM Launched a conviction call on Chalco yesterday - amidst the tide

of selling Aluminum & other broker downgrades expecting Aluminum prices to completely roll over once the strait reopens & as

Indo supply ramps (competitor Indo trip compounded these worries) – both fears we think are overblown especially for Chinese