DHL Group: Growth resumption now in sight; ROIC improvements on the horizon; reiterate OW, PT up to €60

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DHL Group: Growth resumption now in sight; ROIC improvements on the horizon; reiterate OW, PT up to €60

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

16 June 2026

DHL Group Overweight

DHLn.DE, DHL GR

Growth resumption now in sight; ROIC improvements Price (15 Jun 26):€52.06

on the horizon; reiterate OW, PT up to €60 ▲Price Target (Dec-27):€60.00 Prior (Dec-27):€56.50

We reiterate our OW rating on DHL with a PT of €60 (6% higher vs. previously;

implying >15% potential upside on higher estimates) as we now see a clearer path European Transport & Logistics

to growth ahead. DHL had a strong start to 2026, delivering 1Q26 EBIT ahead of Alexia Dogani AC

expectations driven by strong performance in Express and a continued focus on (44-20) 3493-3791

improving operating leverage through targeted cost/efficiency actions. alexia.dogani@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Importantly, the company returned to organic growth: excluding the US market

Harry J Gowers(which saw material policy changes), RoW Express weights grew 2% and

(44-20) 7134-7522

improved q/q. We see the outlook as encouraging with growth improving helped harry.gowers@jpmorgan.com

by comps but also Express’s efforts in “Smart Industrial growth” wins. Based on J.P. Morgan Securities plc

our recent investor conversations, we observe skepticism on DHL’s ability to Shikha Khurana

resume growth, even though soft comps from 2Q26 onwards alone offer a (91-22) 6157-5022

compelling launchpad to deliver a continued volume recovery in Express and a shikha.khurana@jpmchase.com

recovery back to €4bn EBIT in sight (2026 JPMe €3.7bn). This creates an attractive J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

risk-reward set-up, in our view, and we expect ongoing consensus beats, with our Bhavpreet S Batra

2Q26 EBIT now 5% ahead of consensus.