Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– voestalpine- voestalpineAG (VOES.VI) AG (VOES.VI)

Superior margins and end-market exposure

PRICE TARGET €48.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

In line with the other carbon steel equities, we apply a through-the-cycle multiple on ▪voestalpine offers local-for-local, superior

estimated average 2027-28 EBITDA, which captures the first period in which the new, margins and Railway Systems exposure –

stronger European trade policy regime is fully reflected in industry economics. We apply a providing earnings resilience.

multiple of 6.8x, which is the stock's own historical average. ▪The company has manageable

decarbonisation investments/execution risks, €48.70

minimising free cash flow burn as compared

Consensus Price Target Distribution €39.50 €60.00 to peers. MS PT

the shares have sharply re-ratedSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪However,

and the risk-reward has become more

balanced. This underpins our Equal-weight

rating.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

EUR

27% Overweight

€75.00€75.00(+58.50%)€75.00(+58.50%)(+58.50%) 64% Equal-weight

80 9% Underweight

MS Rating

60 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

€47.32€47.32€47.32 €48.00€48.00(+1.44%)€48.00(+1.44%)(+1.44%)

40 Risk Reward Themes

Pricing Power: Positive

Self-help: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

€20.00€20.00(-57.73%)€20.00(-57.73%)(-57.73%)

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE €75.00 BASE CASE €48.00 BEAR CASE €20.00

More effective EU policy underpins peak EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.8x Cycle-trough margin, Autos downturn and

margins NWC build

In line with the other carbon steel equities,