AI CPU expectations rise, Tesla outlook mixed; stay Neutral and raise PT to NT$4400

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AI CPU expectations rise, Tesla outlook mixed; stay Neutral and raise PT to NT$4400

CPUs, given the lack of strong moat around this business, especially for Google J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

CPUs, given recent indications of attempt towards further Foundry diversification; Subham Singhania

and (2) smaller volume for Tesla AI5, if Samsung’s AI6 project can ramp up on (91-22) 6157-3801

time. We raise our FY26/27 EPS estimates by 9%/15% and lift our Jun-27 PT to subham.singhania@jpmorgan.com

NT$4400 (35x 12-month forward P/E), while staying Neutral. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

• Strong server CPU ramp, likely to hit $1bn run-rate in 2026, next gen Key Changes (FYE Dec)

targeting MP in 2H27: We see incrementally positive demand for AI CPUs

Prev Cur Δ

driven by agentic AI use cases, and now expect GUC's Google Axion CPU Revenue - 26E (NT$ mn) 54,642 57,339 4.9%

project could potentially reach ~US$1bn revenue in 2026. Revenue Revenue - 27E (NT$ mn) 111,481 129,198 15.9%

momentum should pickup in 2H26 (JPMe company total revenue up 20%+

QoQ in both 3Q and 4Q) as additional wafers secured at TSMC in 1H flow Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

through to revenue. In addition, development of the next generation CPU is Revenue (NT$ mn)

likely underway, with MP expected in 2H27. Our industry checks indicate that 2025A 2026E 2027E

Q1 7,024 11,448A 22,770

the next-gen CPU will remain on TSMC's 3nm node but should see a Q2 6,105 12,223 28,351

substantial ASP uplift (JPMe 1.5+x) on a more complex design. Given rising Q3 8,613 15,063 35,062

demand and the next-gen ramp, we expect revenue from this client to double Q4 12,400 18,605 43,015

FY 34,141 57,339 129,198

YoY in 2027 and grow 50%+ YoY in 2028. However, the current TK3 business