信骅科技：2H26供应释放支撑持续跑赢；增持

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

06 August 2026

ASPEED Technology Inc.

Supply unlock in 2H26 underpins sustained

outperformance; OW

Overweight

5274.TWO, 5274 TT

Price (05 Aug 26):NT$16,020.00

▲Price Target (Jun-27):NT$23,000.00

Prior (Jun-27):NT$22,000.00

Key takeaways from ASPEED’s 2Q26 earnings included: (1) record-high 2Q26

GM, partly offset by higher opex; (2) management reiterated 3Q26 revenue

guidance of NT$4.1–4.3bn and a GM range of 67%–68%, but strong July revenue

implies upside risk to the revenue outlook; (3) management expects meaningful

supply improvement starting in 4Q26 and pointed to extended order visibility into

1H27; and (4) initial AST2700 shipments starting in 4Q26, with a target of 10mn+

units next year. ASPEED has outperformed the TAIEX by 88% YTD but has traded

sideways over the past three months due to near-term supply constraints. That said,

our industry research suggests better-than-expected back-end supply, and we

forecast 19%/33% QoQ revenue growth in 3Q26/4Q26, respectively. More

importantly, early feedback suggests momentum could extend into 1H27 on

sustained general server demand and new AI server product cycles. Overall, we

nudge up our 2026/27 earnings estimates by 5%/13% and raise our Jun-27 PT to

NT$23,000 (based on 54x 12-month forward EPS, above mid-cycle given a

stronger earnings outlook). ASPEED remains a key beneficiary of the secular

server CPU upcycle (link) in our coverage. Stay OW.

2Q26 GM upside from product price hikes; 3Q dip likely temporary.

ASPEED’s 2Q26 GM came in at 72%, above the guided 67%–68% range.

Management attributed the upside to a timing mismatch between product price

increases and a lagging step-up in back-end costs. 2Q26 EPS beat expectations

at NT$48.7, as non-OP gains offset higher opex. ASPEED also reported July

revenue of NT$1.5bn, up 16% MoM. If we assume flattish to slight MoM

revenue growth in Aug/Sep, 3Q revenue could rise ~20% QoQ, well above the

guided 8% growth. That said, GM is likely to dip in 3Q26 due to further backend cost increases. While the company has not yet provided 4Q guidance, we

estimate 33% QoQ revenue growth, supported by second-source supply

…