维斯塔斯更新Q2预览 - 仍预期显著超共识

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

Vestas

Updated Q2 preview - still expecting a meaningful beat

to consensus

Overweight

VWS.CO, VWS DC

Price (05 Aug 26):Dkr172.00

Price Target (Dec-27):Dkr251.00

Ahead of Q2 results next Wednesday, we update our Q2 preview, first published

on June 30 (link), incorporating consensus from the company, read-across from the

peer group and the latest developments on energy policy in Germany. Both Nordex

and ENR wind subsidiary SGRE exceeded consensus expectations and we forecast

a 13% beat to Vestas' Q2 Adj EBIT consensus, which should translate into a 40bps

margin beat. Despite attractive fundamentals, the stock is flat YTD, and we expect

a second consecutive beat to be taken positively by the market. We still see a

prospect for FY guidance upgrade but there is equal likelihood that the

management might defer the decision until Q3 results due to the uncertain

geopolitical environment. Therefore, we believe the focus should be on a potential

share buyback, where a larger size buyback than recent quarters should send an

incremental positive signal. We are 4%/8% above consensus Adj EBIT estimates

for 2026/27. Vestas is on our positive catalyst watch for H1 results.

European Capital Goods

Specialist Sales contact details:

Some policy clarity in Germany but US uncertainty persists: Since our

original preview, Germany has issued draft EEG guidelines, which is net

positive, in our view. Most importantly, Germany will auction 15GW of

onshore wind in 2027 and 2028, followed by 12GW in 2029, which compares

to 11GW of auction volumes this year. On the negative side, projects in

designated capacity-limited areas lose redispatch compensation for up to 20%

of their annual power generation. Grid operators may also designate areas as

capacity limited where curtailment measures reduced generation by more than

5% in the previous year. As expected, Germany will move from 1-sided

contracts (where current and previous auction tariffs provided a floor price and

developers could benefit from higher wholesale prices if they were above the

auction price) to 2-sided CFD-type contracts, where the government will

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