奥钢联 2027 财年第一季度业绩总结：符合预期，2027 财年指引不变。欧洲钢材价差上升；重申增持评级

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

voestalpine

Q1’27 results wrap: in-line & FY’27 guidance

unchanged. Steel spreads rising in Europe; reiterate

OW

Overweight

VOES.VI, VOE AV

Price (05 Aug 26):€47.00

Price Target (Dec-27):€50.00

VOE’s Q1 FY’27 results were uneventful (First Take: link). Q1 adjusted EBITDA

of €395m was in-line vs JPMe and company consensus (€397m). Q1 reported

EBITDA of €495m includes €100m exceptional from the disposal of BÖHLER

Profil. Mgmt highlight weak European demand especially in construction and

mechanical engineering, although notes strong momentum in railways, warehouse

and rack solutions. Mgmt expect an upward trajectory for realised prices in CY’H2,

with VOE’s Q1 constrained by time-lag by virtue of its sales contract structures.

FY’27 EBITDA guidance was reiterated at €1.60-1.85bn vs JPMe $1.77bn and

company consensus €1.79bn. Incorporating Q1 results, we revise our FY’27/28E

reported EBITDA by +1%/-1% to €1.77/€2.06bn. Our Dec ‘27 PT is unchanged at

€50/sh and we remain Overweight. VOE trades on CY 2026/27E EV/EBITDA

6.0x/5.0x, FCF yield of 1%/5%. under JPM base case. The next potential catalyst

is VOE will host its 2026 CMD on 22 Sept.

Conference call takeaways: 1) EAF & Greentec Steel: VOE’s two EAF

constructions in Linz & Donawitz are on time and budget, with first steel

expected H1’27. Mgmt sees Greentec Steel as cost neutral near term, but

significant margin uplift can be generated over time via “green premia” on

EAF-produced steel, with OEM contracts already secured. Mgmt indicated

early evidence of a "greener market" in Europe, with green premia already

embedded in long-term autos and railway contracts. 2) Steel prices: Mgmt

expect higher market prices in H2 as imports exit and elevated inventories

normalize. VOE then expect higher realized pricing when its half-year/yearly

contract structures reset. 3) Capital allocation & M&A: net debt is €1.0bn for

0.7x ND/EBITDA and mgmt indicated strategic flexibility for bolt-on M&A.

Railway Systems (€2.2bn annual sales, targeting €3bn by 2030) is the priority

given organic growth alone is insufficient. Aerospace and Warehouse & Rack

…