淡水河谷模型更新

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Vale

Model Update

We are updating our model to incorporate Vale’s 2Q26 results. The company

presented solid results and beat JPMe by 4.7%, with the main highlight being

lower-than-expected freight costs. Management flagged that the company has

been successful with its freight strategy. Additionally, the company has been using

other instruments (including derivatives) that enable it to reduce its exposure to

spot from 25% to 10% in the 2Q and expects this strategy to remain for the 2H. In

base metals, EBITDA increased by 79% y/y but slightly missed JPMe.

Management flagged that it is very confident in the company’s copper growth

opportunity, anticipating the start-up of the Bacaba project, increasing returns from

~50% to ~70%. The company also revised upwards its volume guidance for base

metals and lowered cost guidance for the unit, while increasing C1 guidance.

LatAm Basic Materials

Rodolfo Angele, CFA AC

(55-11) 4950-3888

Tathiane Martins Candini

(55-11) 4950-4116

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

Reports:

Vale: Straight from the Call

Vale: 2Q26 Results: Solid Beat, Positive Reaction Ahead

Equity Ratings and Price Targets

Mkt Cap

Price

Rating

Company

Ticker

($ mn)

CCY

Price

Cur

Prev

Vale

Vale ADR

VALE3 BZ

VALE US

63,885.63

63,166.15

BRL

USD

76.31

14.83

OW

n/c

Price Target

End

Cur

Prev End Date

Date

109.00 Dec-26 107.00

n/c

21.00 Dec-26

20.50

n/c

Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 04 Aug 26.