Beiersdorf Lower EPS 26E/27E -7%/-9%, with risks on turnaround path

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

06 August 2026

Beiersdorf

Lower EPS 26E/27E -7%/-9%, with risks on turnaround

path

We update our model following Q226 results and guidance change, lowering

FY26E/27E by -7%/-9% on weaker EBIT margin, slightly offset by better FX and

net financial expense. We now expect Consumer LFL for this year at -2.3% (from

-2.5% prior, with slightly less negative Europe after sun care support, but weaker

AAA, E. Europe and N. America), with Tesa unchanged at +0.2% and Group at

-1.9% (from -2.1%). Guidance for the year leads to a better Q3 Consumer LFL at

flat helped by launches though may seem demanding and we are wary of high Q4

comparatives that may set up for a soft exit rate into 2027E. We lower Group 27E

LFL to +2.6% (from +3.8%), with Consumer +2.4% (from +3.8%). On EBIT

margin, we forecast Group 11.8% for 2026E with Consumer at 11.0% (lowered

from 13.0%/12.5% respectively prior) and see a flat margin progression in 2027E

- albeit with low visibility on building blocks amidst an H226 Consumer margin

down c450bps, and scrutiny on mix and cost, and improvement contingent on

Nivea ‘s top-line turnaround. Overall, we question whether a strategy to rebalance

Nivea to affordable ranges is enough against a backdrop of difficult brand

performance over the long term and whether broader changes are needed for a

brand facing tougher competition from K-Beauty, local and regionals, and globals

such as Unilever. On updated estimates, the stock trades on 20.7x PE 27E (and

15.7x ex cash), and 9x EV/EBITDA 27E, with limited drivers for re-rating amidst

low visiblity on the turnaround path.

Neutral

BEIG.DE, BEI GR

Price (05 Aug 26):€81.92

Price Target (Dec-27):€80.00

European Food Producers,

Household & Personal Care

Products, Beverages & Tobacco

Celine Pannuti, CFA AC

(44-20) 7134-7123

Edward G Hockin

(44-20) 7742-6937

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Specialist Sales contact details:

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales European Consumer

(44-20) 3493-3709

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Adj. EPS - 26E (€)

Adj. EPS - 27E (€)

Prev

4.12

4.39

Cur Δ

3.82 -7.3%

3.98 -9.3%

Style Exposure

Change in estimates. We slightly raise LFL26e while lowering our LFL27e

…